1D3X Context

🔎 Main signals

EU to increase vegetable oil production and set a record for oilseed meal output: The European Commission expects EU oilseed production to increase in the 2026/27 season, according to its July Short-Term Outlook. Combined production of rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybeans is forecast at 32.7 mln tons, up 3.1% from last year and 5.3% above the five-year average. Provider: brave_search (ukragroconsult.com)

Ships avoid Ukrainian grain ports after Russian attacks: The escalation in a region critical ... colza, sunflower seeds and vegetable oil, and 90 percent of its commodity exports pass through Black Sea ports in and around Odesa .... Provider: brave_search (rfi.fr)

Продовольча пшениця в глибоководних портах України дешевшає: Поточного тижня в портах Великої Одеси спостерігається подальше зниженyя цін попиту на продовольчу пшеницю. Про це повідомляє АПК-Інформ. За словами аналітиків, ракетні удари по цивільних кораблях практично зупинили експорт зерна через глибоководні порти Чорного моря. Provider: brave_search (bizagro.com.ua)

Урожай є, виходу в море немає — як зупинка експорту змінює ціни, посівну та стратегії фермерів: За нормальної роботи ринку кошти від реалізації ранніх зернових та олійних повертаються в поле. Нині ж господарства втрачають головне джерело обігового капіталу. Андрій Капріца представляє ФГ «Флора А.А.», яке обробляє близько 1600 га, вирощує кукурудзу, соняшник, пшеницю та ріпак і застосовує технології точного землеробства. Provider: brave_search (growhow.in.ua)

Ukraine’s grain exports shift to the Danube and western border routes: Buyers expect shipments to continue via Danube ports and western border crossings, although this will increase competition for local producers in Romania and other EU countries. According to Platts, Ukrainian corn was assessed at $232/t FOB POC, while 11.5% protein wheat was valued at $228.5/t FOB POC for shipment between late August and early September. Pro (ukragroconsult.com)

Russia Moves to Strangle Odesa; Ukraine Vows Its Ports Will Stay Open - Ag Bull Trading: Between June 20 and July 20, Russian strikes damaged 28 civilian vessels and killed 21 people, including 10 aboard a corn-laden vessel struck off the Odesa coast July 21; four of the dead were Indian nationals. Kernel, Ukraine’s largest exporter, lost roughly 45,000 tons of wheat and 9,000 tons of sunflower oil when strikes hit its Chornomorsk terminals July (agbull.com)

Ukraine's maritime exports have come to a halt: the risks posed by the shutdown of ports | UA.NEWS: Economist Oleksiy Kushch notes: Russia has already calculated the losses to the agricultural sector resulting from the suspension of shipping through the Sea of Azov: a reduction of 1.5 million metric tons in wheat exports. In monetary terms, this amounts to up to $350 million. “What’s important for us to note is that the Russian government has begun compens (ua.news)

Brazil nearly doubles grain harvest in a decade - Food & Agribusiness: With harvesting now complete, soybean production reached 180.6 million tonnes, an increase of 5.3% compared with the previous season. The result was driven by a 2.7% expansion in the planted area, combined with favourable weather conditions and the high level of technology adopted by Brazilian farmers. The outcome further strengthens Brazil’s position as the (foodagribusiness.world)

USDA corn and soybean projections for 2026/2027 – July 2026 - Swine news - pig333, pig to pork community: Estimates for South American harvests indicate a 3.3% increase for Brazil, reaching 186.0 Mt, while for Argentina the harvest would remain unchanged compared to the previous season, reaching 50.0 Mt . Provider: brave_search (3tres3.com)

Soybeans rise on weather concerns as wheat dips - Brownfield Ag News: Given the relative stages of ... than soybeans right now, but any potential reduction in yield could have a big impact on the balance sheet. Demand for feed, fuel, and export use continues to be solid. Corn is also watching second crop harvest activity in Brazil. (brownfieldagnews.com)

🌾 Grain logistics

🌽 Grains

Soybean Prices Today — Live CBOT Futures & Cash Bids | AGSIST: Soybean prices move mainly on the monthly USDA WASDE report, South American weather and harvest, the soybean crush (meal and oil), and Chinese export demand — see what’s priced in ahead of each report. Live CBOT prices below update every 30 minutes. Compare with live corn and wheat futures. Provider: brave_search (agsist.com)

🌱 Oilseeds and vegetable oils

Wheat Prices and Wheat Futures Prices - Barchart.com: Soybeans are trading with contracts 10 to 11 cents higher at Friday’s midday. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is up 10 1/4 cents at $12.14... ... Corn futures are trading with midday losses of 1 to 2 cents on Friday. (barchart.com)

🌍 1D3X | Monthly Commodity & Logistics Market

Global market highlights:

1. The global grains and oilseeds markets from late June to late July 2026 were shaped by a combination of geopolitical tensions, logistical disruptions, and generally favorable weather conditions in key producing regions.

2. Ukrainian Black Sea ports faced intensified operational challenges due to repeated Russian missile strikes, severely limiting maritime grain exports and prompting shifts in trade routes.

3. Weather conditions remained generally favorable across major producing areas including Brazil, the US Corn Belt, and parts of Europe, supporting crop development and harvest prospects.

4. Futures markets for corn, soybeans, and wheat exhibited moderate volatility, influenced by export demand shifts, weather forecasts, and supply uncertainties linked to Ukraine’s export disruptions.

5. Vegetable oil markets, notably sunflower and rapeseed oils, were affected by increased production forecasts in the EU and supply chain adjustments due to Ukrainian export route changes.

Part I. Logistics & Freight:

1. Dry bulk freight rates held relatively steady with minor fluctuations, reflecting balanced demand for bulk carriers amid ongoing global trade activity.

2. Ukrainian Black Sea ports, particularly Odesa and Chornomorsk, experienced severe operational disruptions from Russian attacks damaging civilian vessels and port infrastructure, effectively halting deep-water grain exports.

3. As a result, Ukrainian grain exports increasingly shifted to Danube river ports and western border crossings, raising logistical competition and transport costs in neighboring EU countries such as Romania.

4. The suspension of maritime exports from Black Sea ports increased reliance on rail and river transport, with the Russian government reportedly compensating agricultural companies for 90% of additional rail transport costs to alternative ports.

5. Inland transportation bottlenecks in Europe, including rail and road disruptions, compounded logistical challenges, affecting timely delivery of agricultural commodities and increasing export costs.

Part II. Grains:

1. Corn futures experienced slight declines early in the period due to favorable weather forecasts supporting good crop conditions, but prices recovered moderately on export demand and tightening US stock projections.

2. Wheat prices remained relatively stable with minor downward pressure attributed to ample global supplies and subdued export activity amid logistical constraints in Ukraine.

3. Barley and sorghum markets saw limited activity with steady prices, reflecting balanced supply and demand and minimal export disruptions outside the Black Sea region.

4. Ukrainian grain export disruptions caused a significant reduction in shipments through deep-water ports, depressing local prices for food-grade wheat in Black Sea terminals due to oversupply and limited export outlets.

5. Exporters and farmers in Ukraine face liquidity challenges as blocked maritime routes delay cash flows from early grain and oilseed sales, impacting planting and operational strategies for the next season.

Part III. Oilseeds & Vegetable Oils:

1. The European Commission forecasts a 3.1% increase in combined EU oilseed production (rapeseed, sunflower seed, soybeans) for the 2026/27 season, reaching 32.7 million tons, a 5.3% rise above the five-year average.

2. This production growth is expected to set a record for EU oilseed meal output, supporting domestic crushing and reducing reliance on imports.

3. Ukrainian sunflower seed and oil exports through Black Sea ports have been severely curtailed, shifting trade flows and pressuring global sunflower oil availability and pricing.

4. Rapeseed and canola markets remain stable with steady demand, supported by increased European processing and export activity amid reduced Canadian canola supply.

5. Soybean futures showed mixed trends influenced by South American harvest progress, weather concerns, and export demand, with Brazil’s soybean production forecast rising by 3.3% to 186 million tons.

6. Soybean meal prices held firm supported by livestock feed demand, while soybean oil prices experienced slight declines reflecting global vegetable oil market dynamics.

Part IV. Regional focus:

1. Ukraine: Repeated Russian attacks on Black Sea ports have effectively halted deep-water grain exports, damaging vessels and terminals, and causing a one-third reduction in export capacity from the region.

2. Ukrainian grain exports are increasingly rerouted via Danube river ports and western land border crossings, intensifying competition with local producers in EU countries such as Romania and Bulgaria.

3. The disruption has led to lower demand and falling prices for food wheat in Ukrainian deep-water ports, while farmers face cash flow constraints affecting planting decisions for corn, sunflower, wheat, and rapeseed.

4. Russia has begun compensating Ukrainian agricultural companies for increased rail transport costs to alternative export routes, highlighting the logistical adaptation to maritime export suspensions.

5. European Union: The EU is set to increase vegetable oil production and oilseed meal output to record levels in 2026/27, driven by higher rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybean harvests.

6. Inland transport disruptions in Europe, including rail and road bottlenecks, have complicated the timely movement of grains and oilseeds, impacting export logistics and costs.

7. Brazil: Harvest completion confirms a 5.3% increase in soybean production to 180.6 million tons, supported by expanded planted area and favorable weather, reinforcing Brazil’s position as the world’s leading soybean producer and exporter.

8. South America overall: USDA projections indicate a 3.3% production increase for Brazil’s corn and soybeans in 2026/27, while Argentina’s harvest is expected to remain stable, with sunflower seed production potentially reaching a record 7 million tons driven by Eastern European demand.

9. United States: USDA reports stable soybean export commitments for 2025/26, matching forecasts despite an 18% year-on-year decline to date, while corn stocks are projected lower due to increased exports and feed use.

10. Futures markets: Corn futures traded with moderate volatility, influenced by weather and export demand; soybean futures rose on weather concerns and export activity; wheat futures remained mixed with limited directional movement.

11. Global logistics corridors such as the Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca operated without major disruptions, supporting steady global trade flows for agricultural commodities.

12. The Panama Canal experienced increased container traffic, reflecting robust global trade activity despite regional logistical challenges.

13. Overall, the period was marked by a complex interplay of geopolitical disruptions, weather conditions, and logistical adaptations shaping global grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils markets.

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