1D3X Context

• Black Sea grain export disruptions persist after intensified Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports between July 10-14, notably forcing Kernel to suspend operations at Chornomorsk and damaging 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• European heatwave in June caused an estimated €2 billion in crop losses, reducing grain harvest by 9 million tonnes to the lowest since 2018, pressuring global grain supplies and prices.

• Ukrainian rapeseed processing surged 160% year-on-year to 1.3 million tonnes, driven by logistics and export constraints rather than crop size, shifting market dynamics toward domestic crushing and value-added production.

• Corn and wheat futures showed modest gains amid weather uncertainties and Black Sea export concerns, while soybeans softened on demand and weather factors.

• Global wheat prices remain elevated due to escalating Black Sea export risks and supply interruptions from Ukrainian port attacks, adding risk premium to futures.

• Corn futures consolidated after early-July weather rallies, supported by mixed crop conditions in the US and Europe; France’s corn crop rating declined due to hot, dry weather.

• Soybean futures retreated slightly amid harvest progress in Argentina (62% harvested) and ongoing second crop harvest in Brazil, with US weather and demand signals under watch.

• USDA reports improved national crop conditions for corn and soybeans, but dry spells persist in eastern Corn Belt areas.

• Latin American grain markets saw firm corn and wheat prices, while soybeans eased reflecting regional harvest and demand dynamics.

• Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports and production face disruption from Black Sea port attacks, with Kernel reporting losses of 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• Global rapeseed trade is marginally higher, with increased exports from Moldova and raised crush forecasts for Ukraine; EU rapeseed ending stocks are revised lower for MY 2026/27.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed market increasingly driven by domestic processing capacity and logistics, with export ability shaping price formation and competition between crushers and exporters.

• Kernel processed 3.2 million tonnes of oilseeds this season, integrating production, export, and storage despite logistical challenges.

• Soybean oil prices declined slightly amid product spread adjustments, while soybean meal futures firmed.

• Black Sea grain export logistics remain under severe pressure due to repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports and terminals, causing suspension of major exporters’ operations and vessel disruptions.

• Restrictions on Sea of Azov shipping force Russian wheat exporters to seek costlier alternative routes, adding to global market volatility.

• Shipowners increasingly cite force majeure to avoid calls at Ukrainian Black Sea ports, further constraining export flows and pressuring domestic prices.

• Ukraine’s deep-water grain export capacity is severely curtailed, with significant terminal damage and operational halts reported.

• Europe’s June heatwave caused extensive crop damage, with grain harvest expected to fall to the lowest level since 2018, impacting food price inflation concerns.

• US Corn Belt sees mixed weather; light to moderate rains benefit western areas while eastern regions remain dry, influencing crop development.

• France’s corn crop condition rating dropped 6% to 41% good/excellent due to hot, dry weather.

• Argentina’s soybean harvest is progressing well, with 62% completed; Brazil’s second crop harvest is underway.

• Export estimates for both Russia and Ukraine are expected to be cut substantially due to ongoing Black Sea disruptions and port infrastructure damage.

• Ukraine’s export corridor for grain is effectively closed, leading to sharp domestic price declines for rapeseed, wheat, corn, and barley amid suspended purchases and export uncertainties.

• Global soybean ending stocks for MY 2026/27 are forecast slightly higher, reflecting increased carryover from Argentina’s production gains.

• EU rapeseed stocks are reduced, tightening supply amid higher crush demand.

• Ukraine faces critical export challenges as Kernel suspends operations at Chornomorsk following attacks, impacting wheat and sunflower oil shipments.

• Russia remains the world’s top wheat exporter but faces logistical challenges from Sea of Azov shipping restrictions.

• Latin America continues to influence global grain markets with Brazil and Argentina’s export volumes supporting corn and wheat prices, while soybeans face pressure.

• European crop losses from heatwave add to supply concerns, with implications for regional and global grain markets.