1D3X Context

• Wheat futures surged 30-35 cents amid escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting Black Sea exports, adding risk premium across grains.

• Russian sunflower oil exports reached multi-month highs supported by lower export duties and firm demand from India and Turkey.

• Ukrainian rapeseed exports shifted predominantly to western European borders due to Black Sea port disruptions.

• Kernel reported a 32% cut in oilseed processing in Q4 FY2026, driven by a poor Ukrainian sunflower seed harvest, partially offset by increased soybean and rapeseed processing.

• Wheat futures on Euronext rose 4% following Russia's suspension of navigation on the Donsko-Azov Canal, tightening Black Sea export logistics.

• Corn futures gained 4-5 cents supported by weather forecasts indicating above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall in the US Midwest during critical pollination.

• Soybean futures advanced sharply on strong two-pronged demand from China and domestic processing, despite recent liquidation pressure.

• Global coarse grain production outlook raised for 2025/26 and 2026/27, driven mainly by increased corn yields in India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay.

• Russian sunflower oil exports surged under reduced duties, maintaining stable prices despite emerging supply pressure from upcoming 2026/27 crop growth.

• Global rapeseed trade slightly higher with increased exports from Moldova and higher crush in Ukraine; EU rapeseed stocks forecast lower for 2026/27.

• Ukraine exported over 430,000 tons of rapeseed in early July, mainly to Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, France, and Czech Republic.

• Kernel's oilseed processing volume fell 8% year-on-year due to limited sunflower seed availability but was partially offset by soy and rapeseed processing increases.

• Soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast slightly higher, reflecting increased production in Argentina.

• Black Sea grain export capacity reduced by about one-third due to intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports; four of 13 large terminals in Greater Odessa have halted purchases.

• Russian grain exports face disruption as Ukrainian strikes target ports beyond the Kerch Strait, which handle up to 25% of Russia's grain and sunflower oil shipments.

• Suspension of navigation on the Donsko-Azov Canal by Russia further constrains export routes, contributing to price volatility.

• Alternative export corridors via western borders are increasingly used for Ukrainian rapeseed shipments amid Black Sea port challenges.

• US Midwest faces above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall forecasts through early August, critical for corn and soybean pollination stages.

• Recent heat in Indiana has accelerated corn and soybean development, partially offsetting earlier cold conditions in spring.

• Iowa crop conditions improved last week with 80% of corn and 79% of soybeans rated good to excellent.

• Rapeseed production forecast steady at 21.2 million tonnes globally, with acreage gains offsetting weaker yields.

• Lower Russian export duties on sunflower oil have stimulated export volumes, supporting firm prices despite supply-side uncertainties.

• Strong demand from India and Turkey underpins sunflower oil market stability amid logistical disruptions in Black Sea corridors.

• China's robust soybean demand continues to support basis levels and futures spreads in global markets.

• Ukraine's Black Sea export terminals suffer significant damage and operational halts, severely limiting deep-sea grain shipments.

• Russia's suspension of Sea of Azov navigation and Ukrainian strikes on key waterways create a Strait of Hormuz-style crisis for Russian grain exports.

• Ukrainian rapeseed exports increasingly routed through EU countries due to Black Sea export constraints.

• South American corn and soybean production gains contribute to global supply increases, partially mitigating Black Sea export risks.