1D3X Context

• Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity has declined by about one third due to intensified Russian missile and drone attacks on port infrastructure, notably Kernel’s Chornomorsk terminal, which lost approximately 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil.

• Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Sea of Azov shipping routes have escalated, threatening not only sanctioned fuel shipments but also non-sanctioned agricultural exports such as wheat and sunflower oil, raising concerns over a potential Strait of Hormuz-style crisis for Russian exports.

• USDA July WASDE report cut U.S. corn ending stocks more than expected, signaling tighter supplies for the 2026/27 marketing year, while China continues to drive strong new crop U.S. soybean export sales.

• Brazil’s CONAB raised corn and soybean crop estimates, forecasting record soybean exports of 116.3 million tonnes and a total grain production increase to 360.1 million tonnes for 2026/27.

• Russia’s domestic fuel crisis is impacting agricultural operations in Siberia, with autumn feed harvests at risk in Novosibirsk Oblast, potentially reducing feed availability for livestock through winter.

• Wheat futures hit a two-year high amid heightened logistical risks from Black Sea disruptions; global wheat prices are supported by export uncertainties despite ongoing harvests in Russia and Ukraine.

• U.S. corn futures declined modestly on profit taking, with September corn settling down 6 cents; USDA’s reduced corn stocks forecast adds supply pressure.

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes are constrained by port closures and damaged infrastructure, with deep-water port exports effectively halted and reliance increasing on limited rail and river alternatives.

• Sunflower oil export supply from Ukraine is further constrained after Kernel’s vegetable oil terminal was damaged, reducing available volumes and supporting firm sunflower seed and oil prices amid strong export demand and hot weather.

• Rapeseed prices in Ukraine have risen by USD 20/mt to USD 590/mt recently, driven by higher yields and intensified competition between exporters and processors.

• Brazil’s soybean crop outlook remains strong with record production expected, supporting global oilseed supply.

• Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports have led to significant export disruptions, with four major Ukrainian export terminals ceasing operations and shipowners increasingly reluctant to call at Black Sea ports.

• Ukraine is partially offsetting deep-water export losses through alternative logistics routes, including river and rail, but these cannot fully replace maritime capacity.

• The blockade of the Sea of Azov by Ukraine is disrupting Russian grain and fuel shipments, threatening about a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports that transit this route.

• Favorable weather conditions in Brazil have contributed to record soybean harvest prospects and increased cultivated area by 2.7%.

• In Siberia, Russia’s fuel shortages threaten timely autumn feed harvests, risking livestock feed availability for winter and potential herd reductions.

• China leads strong new crop U.S. soybean export sales, marking one of the largest weeks in months, reinforcing its role as a key demand driver.

• Global wheat trade remains sensitive to Black Sea export risks, with logistical concerns outweighing fundamental supply factors and pushing prices higher.

• Ukraine’s grain export capacity is severely impacted by ongoing Russian military actions, with a one-third reduction in throughput at Black Sea ports and significant losses reported at key terminals.

• Brazil’s agricultural sector continues to expand production and export capacity, underpinning global supply for corn and soybeans.

• Russia faces internal agricultural challenges due to fuel shortages affecting Siberian feed harvests, potentially influencing domestic livestock production.