1D3X Context

• Black Sea export disruptions intensify as Ukrainian strikes target Russian shadow fleet and port infrastructure, further constraining Ukrainian grain and oilseed shipments.

• Ukrainian rapeseed prices firm amid rising domestic competition and reports of higher yields compared to last year.

• Global wheat prices surge driven by Black Sea export risks despite ongoing harvests in Russia and Ukraine.

• Brazil completes record soybean harvest with increased area and favorable weather, boosting production and exports forecasts.

• Asian feed mills pivot from feed wheat to corn due to elevated wheat prices and rising Black Sea freight costs.

• Ukrainian wheat prices at Black Sea ports rose to $203–211/mt for food-grade and $192–203/mt for feed wheat, supported by export demand despite weaker domestic prices.

• Wheat futures on Chicago Board of Trade gained 3.3% on July 15, reflecting heightened concerns over Black Sea logistics.

• Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have lost about one-third of grain export capacity due to Russian missile strikes, causing shipment delays and cargo accumulation.

• Russian and Ukrainian wheat harvests continue but market focus remains on export route security and logistics bottlenecks.

• Brazil’s total grain production forecast raised to a record 360.1 million tonnes, with soybean production and exports notably strong.

• Corn futures advanced modestly amid shifting feed demand and export optimism.

• Ukrainian rapeseed prices increased by $20/mt last week to $590/mt, driven by intensified competition between exporters and processors.

• Sunflower seed and oil prices in Ukraine remain firm supported by strong export margins and robust crushing activity despite infrastructure attacks.

• Kernel Agroholding estimates losses of 25,000 tonnes of sunflower oil following Russian attacks on its oil terminal, tightening supply further.

• Russian sunflower oil exports to India and Turkey surged 189% month-on-month in June, reaching highest volumes since late 2024.

• EU sunflower seed production expected to reach recent highs, with Romania, France, Hungary, and Bulgaria leading growth amid limited crushing capacity.

• Ukrainian strikes in the Sea of Azov have disrupted Russian maritime logistics, escalating risks for grain and oilseed shipments from the Black Sea region.

• Shipowners increasingly avoid Ukrainian Black Sea ports due to security concerns, with partial rerouting through Romania’s Constanta and Danube ports, though capacity is limited.

• Freight rates from the Black Sea to Asia have risen significantly, prompting feed mills in Vietnam and elsewhere to substitute corn for wheat in feed formulations.

• Russian missile attacks continue targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure, exacerbating export delays and raising shipping costs.

• Brazil’s soybean crop benefits from expanded area (+2.7%) and favorable weather, contributing to record national grain production forecasts.

• Hot, dry weather in key Northern Hemisphere growing areas accelerates crop development, raising yield risk concerns for wheat and other grains.

• Reports from Ukrainian fields indicate rapeseed yields surpass last year’s levels despite ongoing conflict-related challenges.

• USDA projects Ukraine’s 2026/27 corn exports at about 23 million tonnes, representing 11% of global corn trade, highlighting the strategic importance of Ukrainian export routes.

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes for 2025/26 season declined nearly 40%, with wheat shipments most affected due to disrupted European logistics.

• Turkey remains a key regional hub for Ukrainian sunflower seed imports, facilitating re-exports and supporting Black Sea oilseed demand.

• Ukraine’s Black Sea ports face severe operational constraints from Russian attacks, with grain export capacity down by one-third and ongoing cargo backlogs.

• Russia’s increased sunflower oil shipments to India and Turkey contrast with Ukraine’s constrained exports amid infrastructure damage.

• Brazil’s record soybean harvest and strong export performance underpin South America’s growing role in global oilseed markets.

• EU sunflower seed production growth is expected to alter trade flows, particularly reducing Turkish import demand if Turkey’s own crop meets forecasts.