1D3X Context

• Black Sea and Sea of Azov port disruptions from Ukrainian-Russian conflict have sharply increased wheat prices globally, creating a risk premium for Black Sea-origin grain and sunflower oil exports.

• Ukrainian export volumes of soybeans and rapeseed in 2025/26 declined significantly year-on-year, with Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands as top European buyers.

• Russian sunflower seed acreage expansion is boosting crush volumes and supporting a tight global sunflower oil balance despite Ukrainian processing downtime.

• Brazil expects a record soybean crop for the third consecutive year, driven by increased planted area despite weather and cost challenges.

• U.S. corn and soybean futures eased slightly amid improving crop conditions and weather forecasts, while wheat futures rallied on export concerns.

• Wheat futures on Euronext and CME rose amid fears of prolonged Black Sea export disruptions; Ukrainian port attacks and Russian shipping halts through the Don-Azov Canal underpin the rally.

• Ukraine’s corn exports remain pressured by increased South American supplies, particularly Brazil's active second-crop harvest and falling prices.

• Ukrainian corn exports in early July totaled 488,000 tons, with Turkey, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain as main buyers.

• Three key Ukrainian wheat buyers—Egypt, Algeria, and Indonesia—may reduce purchases in 2026/27 due to higher stock levels.

• Kernel suspended operations at Chornomorsk port after Russian strikes damaged grain and sunflower oil infrastructure, constraining Ukrainian export capacity.

• Ukraine exported 2.7 million tons of soybeans and 1.82 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, down from the previous year; Germany leads European rapeseed imports from Ukraine.

• Demand for processed rapeseed products is rising globally, supporting Ukraine’s domestic crushing industry amid uncertain weather and shifting export availability.

• Ukrainian soybean oil exports are heavily dependent on the EU market, which accounts for over 90% of shipments; new markets beyond biofuels are needed.

• Despite deeply inverted crush margins in Ukraine due to high seed costs and low FOB oil prices, sunflower oil exports remain robust, supported by strong EU and Indian import demand.

• Russian sunflower seed acreage expansion is increasing crush volumes, contributing to a tight but functioning global sunflower oil market.

• Repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including Chornomorsk and Odesa, have disrupted grain and oilseed exports, forcing operational suspensions and raising global supply risk premiums.

• Ukraine’s blockade of the Sea of Azov is impacting Russian grain and sunflower oil shipments, with Russia unable to fully reroute exports through other Black Sea ports during peak season.

• More than 90% of Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports transit through three Odesa region ports, making the region critical for global supply chains.

• Weather remains the dominant uncertainty for global rapeseed production; lower export availability from some suppliers is creating opportunities for Ukraine.

• Brazil’s record soybean crop forecast is supported by expanded planted area despite concerns over El Niño effects, elevated production costs, and interest rates.

• Scattered showers in the U.S. Midwest are slowing winter wheat maturation and harvest progress, contributing to price support in global futures markets.

• Ukraine’s export revenues from grains and oilseeds reached approximately USD 18 billion in 2025/26, with sunflower oil a significant contributor despite processing challenges.

• EU remains the key destination for Ukrainian processed soybean products, accounting for over 70% of soybean meal and 91% of soybean oil exports.

• Higher stocks in major wheat-importing countries may reduce Ukrainian wheat demand in 2026/27, pressuring export volumes.

• Germany is the largest European buyer of Ukrainian rapeseed (876,000 tons), followed by Belgium and the Netherlands; Switzerland, France, Nepal, Greece, and the USA also feature among top importers.

• Turkey and Egypt receive over half of Ukraine’s soybean exports, while the EU dominates processed soybean product imports.

• South America, particularly Brazil, is increasing corn and soybean export supplies, exerting downward pressure on Ukrainian corn prices.

• Russian expansion of sunflower seed acreage contrasts with selective Ukrainian processing downtime, influencing regional oilseed market dynamics.