1D3X Context

• USDA projects a 4.7 million tonne increase in US soybean production for 2026/27 amid expanded acreage following large South American crops.

• Chinese state trader COFCO has resumed US soybean purchases, acquiring at least 600,000 tons this week, supporting soybean price rebounds.

• Ukraine's 2026 wheat harvest has started strongly, with official estimates suggesting total grain and oilseed output near 80 million tonnes, enabling robust export potential if Black Sea logistics remain functional.

• Argentina set a grain export record in 1H26, with corn exports reaching 21 million tonnes and wheat 11.1 million tonnes, while soybean exports declined slightly by 3%.

• Russian soybean exports to China continue to reshape global soy flows, with expanded sunflower and rapeseed oil shipments capping vegetable oil complex upside.

• Wheat futures gained on supportive corn markets and falling French crop conditions; Chicago SRW September contract rallied over 14 cents, Kansas City and Minneapolis also posted gains.

• Weekly US wheat inspections totaled 4.9 million bushels, bringing 2026/27 season inspections down 18% year-on-year to 55 million bushels.

• Corn futures rose nearly 4% on weather concerns in the US Midwest and Europe, alongside speculation of increased Chinese demand.

• Oats market shows mixed trends with planted area at 2.424 million acres and harvested area at 877 million acres; corn support levels hold near 400-406 cents with resistance around 454-465 cents for September contracts.

• Soybean prices rebounded sharply due to renewed Chinese buying and weather uncertainty, with US old and new crop sales expected to show solid export demand in upcoming USDA reports.

• Ukraine's oilseed exports fell significantly due to lower harvests and export duties on rapeseed and soybean seeds; sunflower seed exports were minimal despite an 11 million ton harvest, with most production directed to domestic processing.

• Sunflower oil prices in Ukraine hit a 2025/26 season high near $1,335–1,340/ton delivered to port, driven by tight late-season seed availability and steady processing activity.

• Russia's expanded sunflower acreage and lower export duties support ample sunflower oil supplies, limiting upside for soy oil and soybeans globally.

• Ukrzaliznytsia transported 15.68 million tons of grain by rail for export in 1H26, an 18.9% increase year-on-year, with border crossings rising in June, supporting Ukraine's export capacity.

• Argentina's strong grain export performance reflects improved port and logistics operations facilitating record shipments in corn and wheat.

• Weather risks in the US Midwest and Europe have driven recent corn and soybean price rallies; forecasts indicate more moderate heat and widespread showers ahead, potentially easing crop stress during pollination.

• Brazil's Center-West region leads feed production growth, supported by rapid corn and soybean production increases and improving railway infrastructure.

• CONAB's updated Brazil crop outlook is due July 14, with ongoing monitoring of harvest activity in Argentina and Brazil influencing global supply expectations.

• Ukraine's export duty on rapeseed and soybean seeds is a key factor in reduced oilseed exports despite stable or rising production.

• European Parliament rejected a soybean oil land-use proposal, preserving the European soy value chain amid sustainability debates.

• US ethanol exports rose 11% in May over April, led by shipments to Canada, the EU, and Nigeria; DDGS exports also increased 6%, supporting corn demand.

• Latin America shows contrasting models: Brazil's Center-West region drives feed sector growth with expanding corn and soybean production, while Argentina sets new grain export records despite a slight soybean export decline.

• Black Sea region remains critical for global wheat supply; EU harvest pressure and Black Sea competition keep wheat prices capped despite external corn support.

• Russian logistics challenges may open opportunities for other Black Sea suppliers to strengthen market positions in grains and oilseeds.