1D3X Context

• Sunflower oil prices in Ukraine reached a 2025/26 season high of $1,335–1,340/ton delivered to port amid tight late-season seed availability and steady processing.

• Corn and soybean futures declined modestly on July 8 after recent rallies driven by weather concerns and Chinese demand speculation.

• Black Sea grain export logistics remain challenged by Russian attacks, potentially reducing Ukrainian grain exports by up to one-third in coming months.

• Ukrainian grain exports totaled nearly 37.5 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, with corn comprising 55.3% and wheat 43.9% of grain exports.

• Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower at $4.35 per bushel on July 8, down 8 3/4 cents, reflecting profit-taking after recent weather-driven gains.

• Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago wheat down 10 3/4 cents to $6.07 3/4 per bushel, pressured by strong export competition and a firmer US dollar.

• Ukraine’s domestic sunflower seed prices remain elevated at 33,000–33,500 UAH/ton for 50% oil content, but farmer selling is limited, constraining supply.

• Rapeseed processing is increasing in Ukraine, expected to reduce sunflower seed demand and potentially soften sunflower oil prices in July.

• Soybean futures showed mixed performance with minor declines on July 8, amid profit-taking despite ongoing export sales to China.

• Ukraine opened registration for duty-free soybean and rapeseed exports for the 2026/27 season via its digital farm platform, aiming to support oilseed trade.

• Black Sea trade activity has improved but cargo demand remains insufficient to support higher freight rates; corn freight from Ukrainian Danube ports to Italy holds at $38–39/ton.

• Russian missile and drone attacks continue to disrupt Ukrainian port operations, threatening grain export volumes and global supply chains.

• Ukraine’s 2026 sunflower harvest is forecast at 13.3 million tons, up from 11.1 million tons in 2025, with nearly all production expected to be processed domestically.

• Turkey remains the largest importer of Ukrainian soybeans in 2025/26 with 923,000 tons, while Germany leads rapeseed imports at 876,000 tons.

• Saudi Arabia’s aggressive wheat tendering is intensifying export competition, impacting global wheat price dynamics.

• Recent heat waves in the U.S. and Europe have elevated concerns over corn and soybean crop conditions, supporting recent price rallies before profit-taking.

• U.S. farmers face mixed crop conditions with persistent weed pressure in soybeans, while corn and wheat show less stress so far this season.

• Russian logistical challenges and fuel costs may limit its wheat export competitiveness, potentially benefiting other Black Sea suppliers.

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes declined in June, with corn exports constituting the majority, reflecting ongoing disruptions from conflict and port attacks.