1D3X Context

• USDA June 1 grain stocks showed corn supplies up 14% year-on-year but below pre-report estimates, supporting a cautious bullish tone in corn futures.

• End of June short covering lifted corn, soybeans, and wheat futures amid technical buying and USDA acreage data confirming higher planted area than 2025.

• El Niño weather concerns persist but have not yet triggered major price spikes, with markets recalling that La Niña events historically caused sharper grain and oilseed price rallies.

• Corn futures rose on short covering and technical buying, with July corn closing at $4.12 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents, supported by heat stress concerns in the US Corn Belt during pollination.

• Soybean futures also gained, closing July at $11.16 3/4, up 8 cents, despite unchanged soybean meal and a slight dip in soybean oil prices.

• Chicago wheat futures advanced 11 1/4 cents to $5.80 3/4 on renewed demand optimism and steady US wheat export prospects.

• US corn planted area increased 5% over 2025, aligning with trade expectations, while Michigan saw declines in corn, soybean, and wheat acreage.

• Argentina and Brazil harvest progress is being closely watched for export flow implications amid global supply considerations.

• Soybean oil futures declined 233 points, reflecting pressure from stable crush margins and ample global vegetable oil supplies.

• Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine and Russia remain critical globally, with Russia’s crude sunflower oil exports to India showing predictable vessel scheduling and concentration in product lines.

• Sunflower seed exports from Romania continue to be monitored as part of the Black Sea corridor supply chain amid ongoing regional risks.

• USMCA renewal remains vital for US wheat exports to Mexico and Canada, underpinning regional trade flows and demand.

• Black Sea corridor logistics risks persist but have not disrupted grain and oilseed shipments materially in the current period.

• Corn bids FOB POC for September-September 2026 shipments remain firm at $215/ton, with CIF Naples offers for August shipments active around $12k-$18k per ton range.

• A heat dome impacting parts of the US Corn Belt is raising pollination risk concerns, though forecasts indicate moderation by weekend.

• El Niño conditions are monitored globally but have yet to cause significant production disruptions in major grain and oilseed regions.

• Ukraine’s 2026/27 winter wheat area expanded to 5.65 million hectares with an expected harvest of 22.4 million tons, slightly below prior year but stable.

• USDA acreage and stocks reports have been market-friendly, supporting stable production outlooks and export competitiveness.

• India’s edible oil imports remain heavily sourced from Russian crude sunflower oil, reflecting trade patterns and supply chain reliability.

• Ohio Corn and Wheat emphasize the importance of USMCA renewal for maintaining US wheat export demand in North America.

• Ukraine’s grain export stocks stand near 8 million tons at the start of the new season, including corn, wheat, and barley, with export logistics a key challenge.

• Argentina and Brazil harvests are progressing, with export activity under close watch amid global supply balance considerations.

• European grain futures markets prepare for Euronext’s planned evening trading session starting April 2027 to smooth reactions to US crop reports.