1D3X Context

• Grain and oilseed futures declined amid pre-USDA acreage and stocks report positioning, with July corn down 10.75 cents at $4.02 and July soybeans off 17.5 cents at $11.08.

• European heatwave concerns supported Euronext wheat prices, while U.S. wheat futures softened on a firm dollar and weaker oil prices.

• Ukraine’s grain exports continue robust despite logistical challenges, with June shipments nearing 4 million tons, led by corn and wheat.

• U.S. corn and soybean futures fell on fund and technical selling ahead of USDA crop progress and acreage reports expected later today.

• Ohio corn and soybean conditions show improvement after early-May freeze, but heatwave and humidity remain key weather factors influencing crop development.

• Ukraine exported 6 million tons of corn and 7.9 million tons of wheat in the current marketing year, though wheat exports are down 19% year-on-year.

• Ukraine’s spring planting of sunflower and soybeans lags behind the five-year average, raising concerns about achieving area targets.

• Wheat futures on Euronext gained 2.4% amid European heatwave fears, reaching a three-week high near €206/mt, while Chicago wheat declined.

• Soybean futures declined with corn and wheat, pressured by harvest progress and weather uncertainties in the U.S. Midwest.

• Ukraine’s rapeseed area expanded significantly, boosting production above last year and the five-year average despite export challenges.

• Soybean and sunflower seed planting delays in Ukraine may constrain oilseed output and export volumes this season.

• Soybean oil futures slipped 223 points, reflecting bearish sentiment amid harvest pressure and global supply concerns.

• Ukraine’s grain export capacity improved with enhanced throughput at sea and river terminals, alongside better rail and truck availability supporting higher shipment volumes.

• Despite ongoing export challenges, Ukrainian FOB offers remain price benchmarks for North African and Middle Eastern buyers.

• A heat dome dominates much of the U.S. Midwest, expected to moderate by weekend, with scattered thunderstorms limited to northern Corn Belt areas.

• Wet weather in the Plains is slowing fieldwork, contributing to bearish pressure on corn, soybean, and wheat prices.

• El Niño-related weather anomalies raise global crop risk concerns, though major price spikes historically align more with La Niña events.

• USDA raised Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat and corn production forecasts but lowered export estimates, reflecting logistical constraints despite strong output.

• Ukraine’s grain exports to developing countries remain significant, with wheat shipments accounting for 17.6% of total grain exports.

• Ukraine’s grain export volumes in June reached nearly 4 million tons, with corn at 1.62 million tons and wheat at 1.31 million tons.

• European wheat markets are supported by heatwave-induced crop stress, while U.S. markets face pressure from a strong dollar and weaker crude oil prices.

• Montana and North Carolina grain bids show steady basis levels amid mixed futures market trends.